By John R Clark Jr., CEO and Founder, Momentum Mortgage

The mortgage industry has spent the last few years waiting for the same thing: rates to come down.

But the Mortgage Bankers Association’s newest forecast says total single-family mortgage originations could actually decline 5% in 2027 to just under $2 trillion. Purchase volume is expected to remain relatively flat, while refinance volume is projected to fall 17%.

That doesn’t mean the mortgage business is broken. I think it means companies have to stop building business models that only work when the market cooperates.

Rates Aren’t an Operating Strategy

Nobody controls where mortgage rates go next.

But lenders do control how many people touch a file, how quickly information moves, how much manual work happens behind the scenes and how much it costs to originate each loan.

That matters because even after improving in Q2, average mortgage production expenses were still $10,936 per loan.

A refinance boom can hide inefficiency for a while. More volume spreads overhead across more loans.

But when volume slows again, the underlying structure is still there.

I’d Rather Build Around What We Can Control

At Momentum, we’ve tried to approach the problem from the other direction.

Instead of asking what the market has to do for us to become more efficient, we’ve focused on what we can change ourselves: fewer unnecessary handoffs, better access to borrower information earlier in the process, smarter automation, broad lender access and licensed people focused on the work where human judgment actually matters.

Technology is part of that, but technology by itself isn’t the strategy.

The goal is a better operating model.

I’d Rather Build Around What We Can Control

At Momentum, we’ve tried to approach the problem from the other direction.

Instead of asking what the market has to do for us to become more efficient, we’ve focused on what we can change ourselves: fewer unnecessary handoffs, better access to borrower information earlier in the process, smarter automation, broad lender access and licensed people focused on the work where human judgment actually matters.

Technology is part of that, but technology by itself isn’t the strategy.

The goal is a better operating model.

What Happens When the Market Does Improve?

Eventually, rates will move. Volume will rise and fall. There will be another refinance cycle.

But I don’t want Momentum to need one.

If you build a company that can operate efficiently in a difficult market, improving conditions become upside rather than rescue.

That is a very different way to think about growth.

Why I Think This Holds Up

Mortgage companies have spent years trying to predict the next rate cycle.

I think the better question is simpler:

Would the business model still work if the market stayed difficult longer than expected?

That’s the question we’re building Momentum around.

See how the platform works at invest.mymomentummortgage.com.

Sources

1. 1. MBA Forecast: Mortgage Originations to Decrease 5 Percent in 2027 as Mortgage Rates Remain Above 7 Percent – Mortgage Bankers Association, October 11, 2026

1. 1. MBA: IMBs Production Profits Increase in Second Quarter of 2026 – Mortgage Bankers Association, August 18, 2026